Never Mind, Back To A Mixed Market

Random Thoughts

Each day you look at the market carefully. You study a handful of indices, several hundred sectors/ETFs, and most importantly, a few thousand stocks.

So what did the above tell me yesterday? Well, it was a mixed day (duh implied). Some areas banged out new highs, some areas sold off, and some areas didn’t do much at all.

Commodities have lost steam. Energies are now back to where they were around 2 months ago. Metals & Mining are now trading back below were they were over 3 months ago.

The Banks which had broken out nicely in October have now given up all of those gains.

Insurance which was making new highs on Monday has pulled back into its base.

Transports are just shy of all-time highs.

Retail, especially Specialty Retail, is doing well.

Drugs, which had been looking a little questionable, have been coming back as of late.

Defense and Manufacturing remain in uptrends.

I can go on and on about the good, not so good, and indifferent. Again, it is getting mixed.

As I preach, markets, like life, have to be taken one day at a time. And, each day brings a new clue. Monday’s action was a lot better than Tuesday’s.

The Ps are just off of all-time highs but they are also just about where they were 2 weeks ago. This action has the 10-day moving average flattening out. The Quack also hasn’t made any forward progress (net net) in a few weeks. A big up day would make all the difference in the world. More flat to weak days keep us in “show me” mode.

International markets (EFA) have also lost some steam.

I still think if the Quack/Q’s take out last Thursday’s high they have the potential to accelerate even higher. Unfortunately, each day that passes helps to negate this signal. So, it’s important for them to rally soon.

You don’t want to argue with a market that is hovering around new highs but eventually, it has to make those new highs. I’d hate to have to start drawing a sideways arrow.

So what do we do? I think the database has been speaking lately. It hasn’t produced a whole lot of meaningful setups in quite a while. On the surface, things still look pretty good. However, it is getting a little mixed beneath. Therefore, again, the database could be the telling us to continue to let things shake out a bit. Considering this, focus mostly on the management of existing positions. As usual, honor your stops. As I’ve been discussing, stops can help to adjust your portfolio. If we continue higher, your shorts will stop out and all you’ll be left with is longs.

Futures are getting hit fairly hard pre-market. For the aggressive, look to play an opening gap reversal (OGRe) should it occur. If you don’t know what that is, pass. Get educated. Read the articles under Education on my website.

Best of luck with your trading today!

Dave