Some Random Thoughts
You Get What You Get
Recently recommended Planet Labs (PL) took off like a banshee. These moves are a lot of fun, but unfortunately, they are not sustainable. The stock came right back in to stop us out.* Based on the 100k model account (@2% risk per trade), we made $1,357/39.58% on the first loaf (half) and $429/12.5% on the remainder for a 26% gain overall. Annualized, that’s over 187% return, much better than a poke-in-the-eye. Speaking of annualizing, although it's "fuzzy math," it does make you appreciate moves like these. You’d own the world fairly soon if that's the worst you did on every trade. Of course, that won't be the worst, but it does illustrate what a "good rep" looks like.
The secret to successful trading is getting in the good reps.
Getting The Reps In
The “good reps” are obviously rewarding monetarily, but there's something much bigger. They help you recognize what winners look like. Counterfeit currency detectives don't sit around studying multi-colored Monopoly money all day. They study, and really study, the genuine article. They study the watermark, the material, the printing, the ink, the look, the feel, etc… Once they know what to look for, the fakes stand out like a sore thumb. Study success.
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Speaking of good reps, while working on the PL slide, I noticed that we have had only one losing trade in the Trading Service since September. I was a little amazed myself. It sure hasn’t felt that easy. I even received a nastygram during that period telling me how bad I suck. I do suck at times, but I can take solace in the fact that this wasn’t one of them! In all seriousness, you never really feel that good in this business for long (and if you do, you’re about to get your ass handed to you). I sure would make a lot more money in my education business if I told you how easy trading was. It is not.
Is It Crazy In Here, Or Just Me?
Once in a webinar, I dug a hole so deep that I began to wonder if I could ever dig my way out. So, quite abruptly, I said ANYWAY, the bottom line is, as traders, we’re all crazy. How eloquent? I began to think. To my surprise, I received an email shortly thereafter thanking me. The gentleman thought he was the only one who felt this way. No, as Sting sang, “You’re not alone in being alone.” We ALL struggle. We all have doubts. We all, as previously mentioned, (not-so-occasionally) have our asses handed to us.
As I preach ad nauseam, I was blessed early in my career. I worked with real traders and a hedge fund. Seeing someone tell you what they are going to do, doing it, and letting the chips fall where they may was a Godsend. As important, it was great to see the ups and especially the downs. I realized that feeling stupid, inadequate, and questioning my life pretty much sums up trading. Anyone can cherry-pick one of their winning trades to show you how great they are. It’s another thing to show you every trade: what you are going to do and doing it. That’s my goal with the “Methodology In Action” portion of The Week In Charts.
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Fodder For Research?
By accident, I may have stumbled upon a technique to time markets with volatility. Although it’s “early days” (or, "early minutes," literally 10 minutes before the webinar), it does seem to show some promise. See the Week In Charts and let me know what you think.
“Bear” With Me
Keeping with the theme of this trading thing is hard; surviving a bear market is even harder. Shorting is much easier said than done. Retrace rallies suck, making it often all-but-impossible to ride out longer-term downtrends. Stealing Dave Keller’s presentation, I discussed the three S’s of bear market rallies. Knowing these things makes me feel less alone in being alone.
It’s not going to be easy, so “bear” with me. I’ll keep an eye out for sell signals and show you what I’m doing. Speaking of sell signals, we dodged a bullet, for now, with the TFM 10% System. Let’s see what next week brings.
If you celebrate, Happy Easter!
May the trend be with you!
Dave Landry
*Full disclosure: I am still long some shares. I’d like to tell you that it’s 100% discretion, but I didn’t realize that it had traded below the stop until after the fact. Shame. Now, in my defense, I do tend to be lenient on the second loaf. As long as I’m still profitable early in the trade, I tend to give them some breathing room.
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Surviving And Prospering During A Bear Market: Dave Landry’s The Week In Charts
Dave continues to showcase his methodology in action by showing a much better than a poke-in-the-eye trade, a “comeback kid” (so far!), a smoke’em if you got’em trade/along with how he used discretion to improve the results. He also revealed a mystery chart and showed one that hasn’t triggered. Shifting gears, he then discussed the three S’s of bear market rallies (based on a Dave Keller presentation) and how markets tend to rhyme, but not repeat, and updated his TFM 10% System.He also discussed some fodder for further research: using volatility to help time the market. Finally, as usual, he covered stock and digital asset conditions.
Click Here to watch.
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As A Trader (or investor): What Keeps You Up At Night?
Note: for reference, this article was originally published in April of 2025. It’s still relevant (or even more relevant?) today.
I'm an occasional guest (and former guest host) of the Crowd Forecast News trader's panel. The show's current host, Jim Kenney ("AKA The Options Professor"), often asks the guests a thought-provoking question:
"What keeps you up at night?"
Keep Reading.
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A Million Little Things Will Make You A Successful Trader
I've compiled a list of all my "Million Little Things" videos. Watch Videos.
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